In a close election I figure McCain will have to win the following dead heat states: VA, OH, COL, NEV and FL. Fl and VA may well go R due to historical leanings though the $ spent in FL and the rapidly changing demos of VA may alter that. Note to O- Kaine will abolutely have no impact in the state. OH truly is tight- the economy vs. the Bradley effect. Appalachia vs. Illinois influence- and frankly, the OH voter is as unpredictable as their thinking. OH was one of the few states that Bush did worse last election. Is this a trend? However, the dimwit voters may confuse McCain with McKinley. For now, I say OH is R despite same day registrations voting day.  COL looks like it has all the indications of being D. The negatives are that it is an evangelical and military state. The positives, everything else is D. The convention may swing the state; and if not the water issue will certainly will.  I say this is O's firewall. NV should also go O because of unionization and GOTV efforts. This last two states are two D trending states that may benefit with a good VP selection. If it is a VA pick, I hope it is a Webb, who may actually swing the state, unlike Kaine, and that way Kaine can appoint the replacement and thereby keeping the senate seat in D hands.    

There has been a lot of hand wringing, and a few I told you so's about Obama's latest poll numbers and the apparent tightening of the race. Everybody is wondering why, in what would appear to be a very favorable year for the Democrats is it tight at all. Bush's favorably ratings are at around 30%, an unpopular war, high oil  prices and a rotten economy. I mean this should be a cake walk, right?

Well maybe not. Let's face it, the Republican's may have lucked into the  the best candidate to go up against us. McCain's got a 20 year brand as a "maverick" some one who goes against the grain of the the standard Republican. I'm not speaking to the truth of this brand, but the perception and there is a big difference between reality and perception. Perception tends to win in the short term until folks start paying attention. And right now I don't think the majority of the electorate is paying attention.

Next are we really expecting to much. Gallup has an interesting read on this:

Look at my past diaries. Look at all the latest polls. Obama is losing ground or has lost the lead. John Kerry was polling better electoraly and nationally four years ago this week. Now, Obama has been hit as a hollywood star, as an elitist, and a snob. He is labeled out of touch with the middle class.

We all know who can save him. He needs to do what he can to win the White House. A BORING WHITE GUY will not save him. Only THE WOMAN can save him now.

He needs to put aside his arrogance, his snob appeal, and this elitist attitude.

He would be fortunate enought if she said yes.

Before you lash out at me...check out all the available websites:
http://www.politicalwire.com/
http://www.taylormarsh.com/
http://www.politico.com/

And yes, your beloved DailyKos...Obama is turning into the new Dukakis and I will not forgive him if he loses this winnable election. He has lost what lead he had!

PUT ASIDE YOU PRIDE OBAMA:

OBAMA/CLINTON   The Dream Team

An AlterNet article Republicans Have Handed Democrats a Winning Election Issue (http://www.alternet.org/environment/9546 9/) proposes that the Democrats, and Obama in particular, should shift the focus of the energy crisis to renewable energy and away from offshore oil.  According to the article, they should place the emphasis on renewable energy and allow the Republicans to filibuster in Congress against a bill proposing to extend subsidies to the renewable energy sector.  The filibuster would expose the Republican's real agenda, which is to continue to support the oil industry and cut off funding for renewables.

A centerpiece of my campaign has been changing the old way of doing politics in Washington, and creating new ways that divest more power to the people.  And I have decided to put that approach into practice in selection of our party's Vice Presidential candidate.

We have had one of the most extraordinary nominating contests in the country.  Some 36 million people have turned out for Democratic primaries and caucuses, more than ever before in our country's history.  And they have chosen delegates from cities, towns, and rural areas across this land.

I believe that our country, and our party, work best when the people have a chance to exercise their power.

For months now the Democrats have been trying to paint John McCain as a toady of the Republican party, voting for Bush 97% of the time over the past two years, attempting to erase his maverick image. But as we've seen over the past several elections, what works best is hitting your opponents on their perceived strengths.

What if we embraced the maverick motif and just made it look dangerous?

So I was watching McCain at SaddleBack, and I was thinking to myself, "This guy is awful.  How dumb does he think we are?"  Then I watched the after-debate analysis and I couldn't believe what I heard.  McCain was being praised for giving simplistic, stump speech answers.  Thinkers around the country observed that McCain's intellectual curiousity was shockingly low.  Meanwhile, pundits praised it as "clear," "simple," and "straight-forward."  I was puzzled about the dichotomy until I remembered a conversation I had back in 2002.

According to Rasmussen, it's 48 McCain, 43 Obama.

This result means that the electoral college is the closest it's ever been. 270 Obama - 268 McCain. And I fully expect McCain to pick off New Hampshire in the end as well, which would give McCain the win.

This cannot be happening.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election